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KMID : 0387320020120030054
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Korean Journal of Health Policy and Administration
2002 Volume.12 No. 3 p.54 ~ p.76
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A Study on the Usefulness of EVA as Hospital Bankruptcy Prediction Index
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Yang Dong-Hyun
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Abstract
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This study investigated how much EVA which evaluate firm’s value can explain hospital bankruptcy prediction as a explanatory variable including financial indicators in Korea. In this study, artificial neural network and logit regression which are traditional statistical were used as the model for bankruptcy prediction.
Data used in this study were financial and economic value added indicators of 34 bankrupt and 34 non-bankrupt hospitals from the Database of Korean Health Industry Development Institute.
The main results of this study were as follows;
First, there was a significant difference between the financial variable model including EVA and the financial variable model excluding EVA in pre-bankruptcy analysis.
Second, EVA could forecast bankruptcy hospitals up to 83% by the logistic analysis.
Third, the EVA model outperformed the financial model in terms of the predictive power of hospital bankruptcy.
Fourth, The predictive power of neural network model of hospital bankruptcy was more powerful than the logit model. After all the results of this study will be useful to future study on EVA to evaluate bankruptcy hospitals forecast.
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KEYWORD
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Hospital bankruptcy, neural newwork, logit regression, EVA
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